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Price Growth Persists in Calgary as Seller’s Market Prevails

Sales in April rose by seven per cent compared to last year, to 2,881 units. While the pace of growth did ease compared to earlier in the year, sales remain 37 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month. Much of the growth in sales has occurred for relatively more affordable, higher-density products.

At the same time, there were 3,491 new listings in April, an 11 per cent gain over last year but only three per cent higher than long-term trends. The rise in new listings compared to sales prevented any further deterioration of the inventory situation. However, with 2,711 units in inventory, levels are 16 per cent below last year and half of what is traditionally seen in April.

“While supply levels are still declining, much of the decline has been driven by lower-priced homes," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Homes priced below $500,000 have reported a 29 per cent decline. Meanwhile, we are seeing supply growth in homes priced above $700,000. Persistently high-interest rates are driving demand toward more affordable products in the market and, at the same time, driving listing growth for higher-priced properties.”

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83 per cent and a months of supply of less than one month, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains in the market. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $603,700, a one per cent gain over last month and nearly 10 per cent higher than last year's levels. Price gains occurred across all property types and districts of the city. The strongest price growth occurred in the more affordable districts of the city.

Detached
Detached home sales rose by one per cent in April compared to last year. Sales gains in the higher price ranges offset the steep decline for homes priced below $600,000, which is related to the lack of listings in the lower price ranges. While detached new listings did report a year-over-year gain of 10 per cent, detached homes priced below $600,000 saw new listings decline by 34 per cent.

Adjustments in sales and inventory levels caused the months of supply to fall further this month. The less than one-month supply reflects a market favouring the seller, driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $749,000, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than April 2023 levels. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the city's most affordable districts.

Semi-Detached
Sales activity continued to rise in April, contributing to the nearly 18 per cent year-to-date growth in sales. The growth in sales was partly due to gains in new listings. However, the growth in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation, as the months of supply remained below one month for the second month in a row.

The persistently tight market conditions have caused further price gains. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $668,400, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a high of 23 per cent in the East district to a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre.

Row
Row home sales continued to improve in April, contributing to the 19 per cent year-to-date gain. At the same time, new listings have improved by 16 per cent so far this year. The gains in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation due to sales activity. This has kept the sales-to-new-listings ratio high at 93 per cent and the months of inventory below one month for the fourth consecutive month.

The persistently tight conditions, especially in the lower price ranges, are driving further price growth for row homes. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $458,100, two per cent higher than last month and 20 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Both monthly and year-over-year gains were the highest in the most affordable districts of the North East and East, where resale row homes are still priced below $400,000.

Apartment Condominium
Sales in April reached 822 units, contributing to year-to-date sales of 2,761 units, a 24 per cent gain. Apartment condominium sales have risen more than any other property type and now represent nearly 30 per cent of all resale activity. This, in part, has been possible due to the rise in new listings. April reported 1,050 new listings, helping support a monthly gain in inventory levels in line with seasonal expectations. However, inventory levels remain nearly 13 per cent lower than last year’s and are 35 per cent below long-term trends.

Like other property types, year-over-year supply declines are driven by the lower-priced segments of the market, which for apartment condominiums is units priced below $300,000. Overall, persistent sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges are driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $346,200 a month, a gain of over two per cent and nearly 18 per cent higher than last April. Year-over-year price growth ranged from over 30 per cent in the North East and East districts to a low of 13 per cent in the City Centre.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS: 

Airdrie
Supply continues to be a challenge in the Airdrie market. April reported 219 new listings and 202 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 92 per cent. This prevented any significant change in the lower inventory environment, and the months of supply remained below one month.

Persistently tight market conditions have driven further price gains. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose by nearly two per cent compared to last month and over 10 per cent compared to last year, reaching $549,100. Detached homes account for the majority of sales, and prices reached $649,900 in April, nearly 12 per cent higher than last year.

Cochrane
Sales in April eased compared to last year. However, this was not enough to offset the gains that occurred earlier in the year, as year-to-date sales improved by seven per cent. Some of the monthly pullback in April can be related to a drop in the number of new home sales occurring in the resale market.

Meanwhile, new listings improved relative to sales, supporting a modest gain in inventory levels. This also helped push the months of supply up to nearly two months. Despite the shift, conditions remain relatively tight, causing further price gains. Prices rose across all property types. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $561,000, one per cent higher than last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than April 2023.

Okotoks
Both sales and new listings improved in April compared to last year, but with 89 new listings and 65 sales, inventory levels rose compared to last month and last year. However, inventory levels in the town remain 60 per cent below what is typically on the market at this time of year.

With one month of supply, the market continues to favour the seller and is driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $617,200, one per cent higher than last month and nearly eight per cent higher than last year. Prices improved across all property types, with the highest gains occurring for semi-detached and row homes.

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March Reflects Strong Seller's Market and Price Increases

March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month.

“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.” 

Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22 per cent lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.

In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes. 

Detached
Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83 per cent. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24 per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60 per cent lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71 per cent of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000. 

Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached
Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96 per cent. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.

Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 14 per cent gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25 per cent in the lowest-priced market in the East district.

Row
Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12 per cent below last year’s and 53 per cent below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35 per cent for units priced above $400,000. 

The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and over 20 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city's most affordable districts.

Apartment Condominium
Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31 per cent higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers. 

Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last March.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS: 

Airdrie
March reported 203 sales and 218 new listings. While both new listings and sales improved, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 93 per cent, inventory levels were 22 per cent below last year and 56 per cent below typical March levels. 

With less than one month of supply, it is not surprising that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In March, the benchmark price reached $540,400, a monthly gain of two per cent and a year-over-year increase of over nine per cent. Prices improved across all property types, with stronger year-over-year gains for the relatively lower-priced row and apartment-style products.

Cochrane
Following a slower start to the year, sales in March rose to nearly the same level of new listings coming onto the market, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 99 per cent. This also contributed to further declines in inventory levels, and the months of supply dropped to just over one month. 

As of March, the total residential benchmark price reached $555,300, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nearly 12 per cent. Prices rose across all property types, and detached prices pushed above $650,000 for the first time.

Okotoks
Okotoks continues to struggle with supply as the 71 new listings that came on the market this month were met with 65 sales, preventing any improvement in inventory levels. There were only 54 units available in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent and nearly 70 per cent below long-term trends for the month. 

Limited supply and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall below one month, and March was the lowest March reported since 2006. Persistently tight conditions drove further price growth this month, as the total residential benchmark price rose to $610,700, a monthly gain of one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nine per cent. Prices have been rising for all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for semi-detached and row properties.

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